Jeff Jarvis at BuzzMachine has posted an interesting piece predicting the end of the advertising-based revenue model for publishers, and, by extension, the end of advertising. Rupert Murdoch's decision to erect a paywall around The Times website has received a great deal of publicity and it seems as though Condé Nast may be following in his footsteps. However Jarvis believes that there is little chance that publishers will ever achieve the sort of revenues that they are used to simply through selling their content. Instead he thinks that the only way that publishers can survive in an era where scarcity has been removed as a means for inflating value is to enter the world of commerce. In other words start competing with the brands that used to supply those advertising dollars and sell the stuff themselves. Of course, having expertise in writing about fashion, for instance, in no way qualifies you to start operating as a fashion retailer.

I think there will be some tough times ahead for the publishing industry it has yet be shown whether consumers will ever be willing to pay a price for content that realistically reflects the true cost of generating that content - they are so used now to all of those free-to-access websites and magazines with cover mounted gifts. Sooner or later someone will develop a business model that works, and, who knows, maybe publishers will all become retailers. They will need to radically shift their areas of expertise first though.